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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T01:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T01:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33641/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2024-10-01T01:09Z. Also seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 for a few frames. The source of this CME is likely an M7.6 flare from AR 3842 (S18E30) that peaked at 2024-09-30T23:59Z. The flare and associated EUV wave are best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2024-09-30T23:47Z and are followed by some dimming across the SE quadrant of the Earth-facing disk and some post eruptive arcades. No signature(s) of arrival in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-05T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33650/1
Model Inputs:
2024-10-01T01:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=276.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-10-01T13:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-05T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241001_134000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 90.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2024-10-01T16:34Z

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